Moderna: Multi-Year Opportunity for mRNA-1273, Says Analyst

(TipRanks) – Last week, Moderna (MRNA) kicked off its TeenCOVE Study, dosing the first participants in the Phase 2/3 trial of the company’s Covid-19 vaccine candidate mRNA-1273, in healthy adolescents between the ages of 12 to under 18.

Moderna has received $955 million of federal funding for the study which is a collaboration with the Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority (BARDA). 

The company is currently on the cusp of receiving emergency use authorization EUA for mRNA-1273, after the vaccine exhibited a 94.1% success rate in preventing the coronavirus in a late-stage study. The FDA will review mRNA-1273’s data on December 17, and it is widely thought its path for approval is virtually sealed.

For Brookline Capital analyst Leah R Cann, initiation of the TeenCOVE study represents “an important step toward getting the school age population vaccinated before the 2021/2022 school year.”

“This population is an important addressable market for mRNA-1273,” Cann said, “And is important for reaching herd immunity and restoring a functioning economy.”

By the end of 2020, Moderna remains on track to have approximately 20 million vaccine doses available in the US. By the next year’s first quarter, the company believes it will have between 100 million and 125 million of the expected 500 million to 1 billion 2021 doses ready to go.

Cann thinks the vaccine’s commercial opportunity is one which could last several years.

“We estimate that worldwide mRNA-1273 sales will be approximately $61 billion total for the four years during the pandemic phase of pricing, 2021 – 2024; with the price increasing meaningfully during the endemic phase starting in 2025, and resulting in $51.4 billion in worldwide sales in 2030, making it the largest contributor to Moderna’s 2030 sales, accounting for 60% of sales,” the analyst opined.

To this end, Cann rates MRNA shares a Buy along with a $164 price target. This figure implies an 11% upside from current levels. (To watch Cann’s track record, click here)

Moderna shares have surged dramatically in 2020 (up by 652% year-to-date) and the Street appears to be factoring in the outsized gains when evaluating its 2021 prospects. While the analyst consensus rates the stock a Moderate Buy, the average price target tells a different story; At $132.31 the figure represents potential downside of 10% in the year ahead. (See MRNA stock analysis on TipRanks)

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Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the featured analyst. The content is intended to be used for informational purposes only. It is very important to do your own analysis before making any investment.

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