Economy

Barclays ups Brazil inflation forecast to 4.5%, sees 50 bps rate hike next week

Economy (Mar 09, 2021 09:05AM ET) Barclays ups Brazil inflation forecast to 4.5%, sees 50 bps rate hike next week

© Reuters. A costumer looks for drinks at a supermarket in Rio de Janeiro

BRASILIA (Reuters) – Brazilian inflation will run significantly above the central bank’s target this year, forcing it to raise interest rates faster than previously anticipated, starting with half a percentage point hike next week, economists at Barclays (LON:BARC) said on Tuesday.

In a note to clients, they raised their year-end inflation forecast to 4.5% from 3.9%, adding that the risks remain tilted to the upside. This comes only a month after they raised the outlook from 3.6%.

The central bank’s 2021 goal is 3.75%, with a 1.5 percentage point margin of error on either side. The last official figures showed inflation running at 4.6% in January, fueled by the continued strength of food and commodity prices.

Barclays economists now expect the central bank’s rate-setting committee, known as Copom, to raise the benchmark Selic rate next week by 50 basis points to 2.50%, and continue lifting it to 4.50% by the end of the year.

“The (Copom) would not want to run the risk of ‘falling behind the curve’ in the market’s eyes, as that could impose a larger cost to monetary policy down the line should credibility be lost in that process,” they wrote.Barclays ups Brazil inflation forecast to 4.5%, sees 50 bps rate hike next week Add a Comment

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